Who has a 74% chance of becoming the UK’s next PM?

After a week of poor performances, here’s who’s leading the pack

This week has been a particularly unimpressive one for the main players ahead of the general election, but amid it all, Labour are now leading the polls, albeit by a tight margin.

At this stage in the game, polls are all the public, and indeed the parties, have to go on to know whether their planned messages are hitting home with the electorate, or whether they’re shouting into space.

According to the latest election outcome predictor poll from Populus/Hanover, Labour is currently on course to win an estimated 277 seats. This marks a rise of four since last week.

Miliband pointing

Meanwhile the Tories are now apparently heading for 272 seats, a fall of one since last week.

According to Populus, Labour’s gains are mostly at the expense of the SNP, which is currently estimated to win 44 seats, a fall of four since last week.

According to Rick Nye, the managing director of Populus, ”the sum total of these changes mean that Labour is the biggest party in 54% of our simulations compared with the Conservatives’ 46%,” he writes in the FT.

“However, this translates into a 74% chance of Ed Miliband being prime minister and a 26% chance for David Cameron.”

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Readers' comments (3)

  • Anonymous

    O my God!
    Time to sell my expensive house, sell my business, make all my staff redundant and book that one way ticket abroad.
    Goodbye Britain - I wish you good luck

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  • If right - Immigration figures solved everyone will be heading out of the UK!

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  • Anonymous

    It's not brilliant under the current regime, but nothing could be worse than a government led by Ed Milliband and his band of idiots!

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