New YouGov poll adds to Cameron’s EU woes as UKIP surges

Conservative Party voters, who supported Cameron in 2010, are planning to turn away from the government at the European Parliamentary elections due next year.

According to a poll released on Tuesday by YouGov, some 17% of people plan to back UKIP at the European level, compared to just 27% who plan to back the Conservatives. Out of those who voted Conservative at the last General Election, almost a third (32%) would vote UKIP next year, the survey found.

Labour fared the best and are projected to win 38% of the vote, although they have lost out in, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both expected to pick up more votes.

The findings come just days after rival pollsters put UKIP ahead of the Conservatives by one point in EU polls.

“At this stage, with 17 months to go until the elections, voting figures are of little predictive use. In the past, UKIP has added very significantly to its support during the election campaign itself,” says YouGov president, Peter Kellner.

“All that can be said at this stage is that for UKIP to have support in the region of 20% long before the campaign has begun is excellent news for them. They could easily go on to win 25-30% next year, and very possibly top the poll.”

How will London vote in 2014?

Labour – 35%

Conservatives – 30%

UKIP – 17%

Lib Dem – 12 %

Greens – 5%

SNP – 1%

YouGov admits that its polling numbers can be volatile. In 2004, their methods overestimated UKIP’s popularity at the EU level by some four points, although the pollster has since fine-tuned its questions and its EP election 2009 prediction were practically spot on.

The pollster believes that the change in approach explains the higher levels of support recorded for UKIP in other widely-publicised recent polls.

More YouGov UKIP findings:

20% of men say they would vote UKIP, but just 14% of women.

Almost 30% of the over-60s say they support UKIP, compared to 17% of those aged 40-59. A mere 8% of people under 40 support UKIP.

UKIP polls about 20% in most British regions, but has nominal support in Scotland, where it is forecast to pick up just 8% of vote in 2014.

 

 

 

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